MIles J. Herszenhorn and Natalia Kniazhevich
The fast‑moving conflict across the Middle East is heightening investor anxiety and strengthening the case for safe‑haven trades such as Treasuries, gold and the Swiss franc, while oil prices are set to soar.
Macro traders said all eyes will be on energy markets when trading fully re-opens on Monday, with early indications of volatility also expected when the US dollar and other currencies start to trade in Australia. The possibility of prolonged turmoil in the Middle East and the ripple effects of higher oil prices are giving money managers fresh reasons to sell equities and shift into safety.
Futures are pointing to a fall of 0.2 per cent at the open for the Australian sharemarket, but this was set before the US attack on Iran on Saturday (Australian time). The Australian dollar was trading at US70.65¢ at 5.26am AEDT.
Traders will be adopting the strategy of “haven first, ask questions later,” according to John Briggs, head of US rates strategy at Natixis. “The scale of the attacks and Iranian retaliation is larger than what the market expected,” he said.
Briggs said Treasuries are likely to extend moves from Friday, when short-term yields sank to levels last seen in 2022. Others are watching energy chokepoints. Roundhill Financial’s Dave Mazza said he’s closely tracking what happens to traffic at the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway handling about a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade.
“This is about Hormuz risk, not retaliation. If shipping stays open, stocks can work through it,” he said. “If it doesn’t, all bets are off.”
Brent crude jumped 10 per cent to about $US80 a barrel over the counter on Sunday, oil traders said, while analysts predicted that prices could climb as high as $US100 after US and Israeli strikes on Iran plunged the Middle East into a new war.
The global oil benchmark has rallied this year and reached $US73 a barrel on Friday for its highest since July, buoyed by growing concern over the potential attacks that arrived a day later. Futures trading is closed over the weekend.
“While the military attacks are themselves supportive for oil prices, the key factor here is the closing of the Strait of Hormuz,” said Ajay Parmar, director of energy and refining at ICIS.
More than 20 per cent of global oil is moved through the Strait of Hormuz.
“We expect prices to open (after the weekend) much closer to $US100 a barrel and perhaps exceed that level if we see a prolonged outage of the Strait,” Parmar said.
US stocks sank Friday as Wall Street kept punishing companies that could become losers in the artificial-intelligence revolution. A surprisingly discouraging update on inflation also hurt the market, while oil prices climbed with worries about tensions between the United States and Iran.
The S&P 500 fell 0.4 per cent and staggered to the finish of just its second losing month in the last 10. The Dow Jones dropped 521 points, or 1.1 per cent, the Nasdaq composite sank 0.9 per cent.
The losses came as investors returned to knocking down software companies and other businesses they suspect could get supplanted by AI-powered competitors.
Block, the company behind Cash App, Square and other businesses, gave a potential signal of what AI could do after Chair Jack Dorsey said it’s cutting its workforce by nearly half. That’s even though he said 2025 was a strong year for the company, which is sending more cash to shareholders through stock buybacks.
“Intelligence tools have changed what it means to build and run a company,” Dorsey said in a letter to investors while announcing Block’s latest profit results. “We’re already seeing it internally. A significantly smaller team, using the tools we’re building, can do more and do it better.”
The co-founder of Twitter also said, “I don’t think we’re early to this realisation. I think most companies are late. Within the next year, I believe the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion and make similar structural changes.”
Block is cutting more than 4000 jobs from its workforce of over 10,000. Its stock jumped 16.8 per cent after making the announcement, while announcing its latest quarterly results.
Capable AI tools that can replace humans could perhaps replace entire companies, or at least eat away at their profit margins. Fears about AI disruption have caused sudden and swift sell-offs for stocks seen as potentially under threat, and they’ve rolled through industries as different as trucking logistics and legal services.
Salesforce, whose platform helps customers manage their relationships with clients, fell 2.3 per cent. It gave back much of its 4 per cent gain from the day before after reporting a better profit than analysts expected.
The pain has also hit private-equity companies that have bought or lent money to software companies, which need to withstand the AI threat to keep repaying those loans. Apollo Global Management dropped 8.6 per cent for the one of the sharpest losses in the S&P 500. Blue Owl Capital, which has been a target for investors because of the loans to it’s made to the software industry, fell 6 per cent.
Even the companies currently seeing their revenue and profit soar because of AI-related demand are under pressure. Nvidia fell 4.2 per cent and was the heaviest weight on the US stock market. A day earlier, it dropped to its worst loss since last spring even though it reported a better profit than analysts expected and forecast more in revenue for the current quarter.
On the winning side of Wall Street was Netflix, which climbed 13.8 per cent after walking away from its bid to buy Warner Bros. Discovery’s studio and streaming business. That put Skydance-owned Paramount in a position to take over its Hollywood rival.
Paramount Skydance shares jumped 20.8 per cent, while Warner Bros. Discovery fell 2.2 per cent.
Also hurting the broad market was a report showing that inflation at the US wholesale level was at 2.9 per cent last month, much higher than the 1.6 per cent that economists expected.
Bloomberg, AP
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