Huge chunk of Victoria facing increased bushfire risk in lead-up to winter

The peak Australasian fire body, AFAC, has pinpointed parts of Victoria, NSW, South Australia and Western Australia where heightened fire risk is expected throughout autumn.

Almost of all of Victoria, as well as regions in southern, central and eastern NSW, the south-east corner of South Australia and parts of southern Western Australia face an “increased number of significant bushfires” compared to the average threat during autumn.

AFAC chief executive Rob Webb said the elevated risk was driven by “increased long-term dryness and persistent soil moisture deficits”.

“For many parts of southern Australia, autumn sees the gradual reduction in fire risk and opportunities for prescribed burning can increase,” Webb said.

“However, these programs may be delayed in some areas because of the underlying conditions.

“This is a three-month outlook. Even with the anticipated rains in the southeast in the short term, much more would be required to overcome the long-term moisture deficits.”

Emergency Management Victoria Deputy Commissioner Brett Boatman said all of Victoria, with the exception of East Gippsland and the Mallee, would be under increased bushfire risk throughout autumn.

“For most of the state it’s been a hot and dry summer,” Boatman said.

“This has followed more than two years of underlying dryness, which has resulted in significant amounts of dead and dry vegetation across the Victorian landscape.

“A drier than average autumn is now expected, with warmer than average temperatures forecast.

“This will further increase fuel availability across most of the state, increasing the potential for fires to start and to spread.”

Recent rainfall across Victoria has drenched some of the thirsty bushland, but has not removed the risk, Boatman said.

Residents in high-risk zones are urged to be aware of the danger and have a bushfire plan.

The AFAC outlook has been developed by expert fire specialists across Australia, alongside climate predictions and fire weather experts from the Bureau of Meteorology.

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