As rate hikes loom, Australians scramble to take on increasing amounts of debt

You might expect the prospect of higher interest rates would make people rein in spending and avoid new loans. Instead, Australians are doing the opposite.

New data shows mortgage and credit card applications surged in the months leading up to the Reserve Bank’s first rate hike in two years — suggesting many borrowers have tried to lock in finance before costs climbed further.

Mortgage credit demand grew 12.3 per cent in the three months to December compared with the same period in 2024, according to consumer credit reporting agency Equifax’s Market Pulse report.

Credit card applications jumped even more sharply — up more than 15 per cent over the quarter.

Nevertheless, locking in finance doesn’t necessarily shield people from cash rate hikes, which still drive up interest on credit cards and variable mortgages — the dominant choice for new loans today.

The biggest increase in five years

The significant increase in mortgage applications was at a level not seen in five years, Equifax chief solution officer Kevin James said.

“It’s likely to have been supercharged by the government’s expanded five per cent First Home Buyer Deposit Scheme that became available in October 2025, and buyers acting on the impression that rates had peaked in late 2025, and therefore rushed to lock in deals before the year’s end.

“If this was their driver, they may have secured the last of the lower rates for a while, following the 25-basis point increase confirmed this February.”

Arrears steady — but debts are bigger

While the number of Australians falling behind on home loan repayments remained steady, the amount they owe is rising.

The dollar value of mortgage arrears increased 6.8 per cent compared with the same quarter in 2024.

The average amount owed on a loan at the late stage of delinquency jumped more than eight per cent to $403,000, correlating with higher house prices, potentially forcing buyers into larger loans with steep repayment penalties.

“This pattern of older Australians (aged 66 and over) carrying this type of debt into retirement is something to keep an eye on, particularly if the rate environment continues to increase,” James said.

In other credit segments, unsecured credit demand jumped 5.9 per cent, personal loan applications increased 8.9 per cent, while vehicle and auto loans fell 5.4 per cent compared with the 2024 quarter.

Gen X and gen Z driving the surge

Generation X borrowers (aged 46 to 55) drove the growth in mortgage demand.

Meanwhile, generation Z (18 to 30-year-olds) fuelled the spike in credit card applications with a 23.2 per cent surge — the highest growth rate for that cohort in three years.

The uptick was likely underpinned by aggressive incentive campaigns pushed by card providers in the recent quarter.

The younger borrowers subsequently helped drive a 28.8 per cent surge in credit card arrears.

But despite the surge in demand, lenders appear to be taking a more cautious approach.

Credit card limits for new customers have dropped by an average 8.3 per cent year-on-year, while personal loan limits are down 3.9 per cent.

“This proactive reduction appears to represent responsible lending in action, as banks prioritise stability over high-risk growth,” James said.

In terms of personal loans, slightly fewer people were falling into trouble, with delinquency rates easing 0.08 per cent, but those who did were falling deeper.

“While the number of people falling behind on personal loans has actually dropped, the amount of money they owe has significantly increased,” James said.

The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted interest rates in February for the first time in two years, setting the scene for lenders to bump up their offerings in line with the increase.

The bank is expected to raise rates again as early as May.

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